By Martin Baccardax,INVESTING – TheStreet, 2024-08-29
Nvidia NVDA shares slipped lower in early Thursday trading, but pared the worst of their post-earnings declines, as a host of Wall Street analysts rush to update ratings and price targets on the AI chipmaker following its highly-anticipated July-quarter update.
Nvidia, which holds a commanding lead in the production of chips and processors that power AI systems around the world, posted record revenues of $30.04 billion for its fiscal second quarter and saw profits more than double from the same period last year to 68 cents per share.
The group also suggested that current quarter revenues would continue to improve, albeit at a slower pace, and forecast a top line tally of $32.5 billion despite some delays in the shipment of its new line of Blackwell processors owing to design changes and supply-chain snarls.
Nvidia said it executed a "change to the Blackwell [graphics-processing-unit] mask to improve production yield.", adding that the ramp is "scheduled to begin in the fourth quarter and continue into fiscal 2026."
"We're sampling functional samples of Blackwell, Grace Blackwell, and a variety of system configurations as we speak," Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told investors on a conference call late Wednesday. "There are something like 100 different types of Blackwell-based systems and we're enabling our ecosystem to start sampling those."
"The functionality of Blackwell is as it is, and we expect to start shipping out in Q4," he added, noting that demand for Nvidia‘s legacy Hopper chips is "really strong" and the appetite for Blackwell "incredible'.
Blackwell revenue boost
Finance chief Colette Kress said Blackwell should generate "several billion" in revenues for Nvidia‘s fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in January, while adding that Hopper sales would accelerate over the second half of the year.
That has proven important for investors who had worried that the Blackwell launch would trigger some cancellation of postponement of Hopper orders as customers waited for the new, more powerful processors and systems to hit the market.
Related: Nvidia earnings top forecast, but Blackwell delay signal hits stock
The Blackwell ramp, however, will likely eat into Nvidia‘s profit margins, which narrowed modestly to 75.7% in the second quarter and will likely settle at the 75% level over the near-term.
"Despite lower-than-expected gross margin guidance, Nvidia‘s data center revenue opportunity across cloud, consumer internet, and enterprise customers remains strong," said Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari, who reiterated his ‘conviction buy' rating and $135 price target on Nvidia stock following last night's earnings upate.
"With a re-design of the Blackwell GPU, management expects several billion dollars in revenue in FY4Q, supported by growing Hopper revenue," he added.
Blackwell ‘nothing burger'
JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur had a similar take, noting the the two month delay in Blackwell GPU shipments shouldn't impact Nvidia‘s overall revenue profile given that it's "offset by Hopper's strong performance".
"We expect gross margins to improve throughout next year, with Nvidia maintaining a strong lead over competitors with its aggressive product launch cadence," said Hur, who added $40 to his Nvidia price target, taking it to $155 per share.
Related: Nvidia stock price tied to 5 key items in Q2 earnings report
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse, who reiterated his $175 price target and ‘overweight' rating on Nvidia stock, said worries over the Blackwell delay "appear to be a nothing burger ahead of one of the biggest and baddest product cycles in Nvidia‘s history."
"We do not see any change to the AI story underpinning Nvidia, and think (today's) potential pullback is simply another buying opportunity," he added.
That view was echoed by Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar, who also held his $140 price target and ‘overweight' rating in place following last night's earnings update.
"The company is well-positioned to capitalize on strong AI demand with Hopper and Blackwell," Kumar said. "Gross margins are expected to stabilize, supporting continued growth."
Nvidia expectations remain high
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Stacy Rasgon, who raised his Nvidia price target by $25, to $150 per share, said the group "continues to deliver amidst high expectations with strong data center growth and several billion dollars of Blackwell revenue expected in Q4."
"Hopper demand remains strong, and we anticipate significant growth next year driven by diversified customers and expanding AI opportunities," he added.
More AI Stocks:
- Analyst revisits Microsoft stock price target after AI reporting change
- Analyst resets Nvidia stock price target before earnings
- Analysts revise Palo Alto Networks stock price targets after earnings
Edward Jones analyst Logan Purk, who reiterated his ‘hold rating on Nvidia, said that while the group "remains the leader in high-performance GPUs and commands a 90% market share in data centers for accelerator chips", it will be a challenge for management to continually exceed expectations.
"We believe the stock appropriately reflects our optimistic growth outlook and is appropriately valued," Purk said.
Nvidia shares were marked 3.9% lower in premarket trading, with more than 9.8 million shares changing hands, to indicate an opening bell price of $120.74 each.
Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks
